September Fed Rate Cut Locked In — But By How Much?

The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver its first rate cut of 2025, with market consensus converging on a 25 basis point reduction. The CME FedWatch Tool reflects a 92.5% probability of this move, which WOULD bring the benchmark rate to 4.00%–4.25%. A minority view suggests the potential for a more aggressive 50 bps cut, but the broader expectation is for gradual easing through year-end.

Labor market weakness has overtaken inflation as the Fed's primary concern. August's disappointing jobs report and downward revisions to prior data signal accelerating economic cooling. This shift in priorities has cemented September's rate cut as a NEAR certainty, with additional reductions likely by December.

Cryptocurrency markets typically exhibit heightened volatility around Fed decisions. While no specific coins are mentioned in this context, traders across major exchanges including Binance, Coinbase, and Bybit will be watching for Ripple effects across BTC, ETH, and other digital assets.